Scribd
Upload
3 views

Simple Proba(2)

The document provides an overview of probability, its historical context, and its significance in statistics. It discusses various approaches to assigning probabilities, including A Priori, A Posteriori, and Subjective methods, along with examples illustrating these concepts. Additionally, it defines probability mathematically and presents real-life applications, such as predicting outcomes in gambling and assessing risks in health and finance.

Uploaded by

Ayessa Edrie Mamaril
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
3 views

Simple Proba(2)

The document provides an overview of probability, its historical context, and its significance in statistics. It discusses various approaches to assigning probabilities, including A Priori, A Posteriori, and Subjective methods, along with examples illustrating these concepts. Additionally, it defines probability mathematically and presents real-life applications, such as predicting outcomes in gambling and assessing risks in health and finance.

Uploaded by

Ayessa Edrie Mamaril
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 15

PROBABILITY

STATISTICS
By: Liza D. Buitizon
INTRODUCTION
 Formal study of chance.

 It originated from the analysis of gambling games (or


games of chance) – predicting the likelihood/chance of an
outcome.

 It is important in the study of statistics as it provides a


bridge between descriptive and inferential statistics.
REAL LIFE APPLICATIONS
 Determining the probability of winning in lotto.
 Determining the chance of dengue infection in a
community with reported cases.
 Determining the chance of the price of a particular stock
increasing in a particular trading day
 Determining the strength and path of typhoons
APPROACHES IN ASSIGNING
PROBABILITIES TO EVENTS
 In general, a probability is a number attached to
an event which indicates the chance it will occur.
The larger the number, the more likely it is to
occur.

 Approaches:
A Priori
 A Posteriori
 Subjective
A PRIORI APPROACH
 Theoretical, axiomatic, classical

 Requires the construction of a model that will be used


in the computation or assignment of probabilities with
underlying assumptions.
A PRIORI APPROACH
 MODEL: Sample Space
 ASSUMPTION: Each outcome in S has the same
chance of occurring (equally likely outcomes)
 Under this assumption, the probability of an event
E occurring is
Number of outcomes/elements in E
P( E ) 
Number of outcomes/elements in S
 Involves counting.
A PRIORI APPROACH
Example:
Recall the experiment of tossing 3 fair coins
Since the coins are fair, outcomes are equally likely.

S {HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH , TTT }


Let E= be the event that two heads will occur

E {HHT , HTH , THH }


P(E) = 3/8
A POSTERIORI APPROACH
 Also called the relative frequency approach

 The probability of an event occurring is computed based


on the relative frequency of that event happening after
the random experiment is conducted a large number of
times.
A POSTERIORI APPROACH
 Example: Random exp’t. – toss three coins.
Suppose, the experiment is conducted 100 times
and the result are shown in the following table:

OUTCOME HHH HHT HTH THH HTT THT TTH TTT


FREQUENCY 11 9 13 15 12 18 17 5

Let E be the event of getting 2 heads:


E {HHT , HTH , THH }
9  13  15 37
P( E )   0.37
100 100
A POSTERIORI APPROACH
f ( A)
lim P ( A)
n  n
 The A posteriori probability is not always
equal to the A priori probability.
However, the two probabilities becomes
closer as the number of trials is
increases.
SUBJECTIVE APPROACH
 The assignment of a probability depends on
one’s personal assessment.
PROBABILITY DEFINITION
 Probability is the chance that something will happen.
 Probabilities are expressed mathematically as fractions
(1/6, 1/3, 8/9) or as decimals (.25, .5, .78) between 0 and
1.
 Assigning zero means that something can never happen;
and a probability of 1 indicates that something will surely
happen.
0 PA 1 for any event A
P  1 where  is the sample space
P  0
EXAMPLES:

 If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find the


probability that it is a heart.

 A bag contains 6 red balls, 5 yellow balls and 3 green


balls. A ball is drawn at random. What is the
probability that the ball is: (a) green, (b) not yellow?

 The letters of the word ENGINEERING are written on


slips of paper, and are placed in a box. A slip of paper
is chosen at random. What is the probability that: (a)
the letter is vowel, (b) the letter is a consonant.
EXAMPLE:
A pilot plant has produced metallurgical batches which are summarized
as follows:
Low Strength High Strength
Low in 2 27
impurities
High in 12 4
impurities
If these results are representative of full-scale production, find estimated
probabilities that a production batch will be:
i) low in impurities
ii) high strength
iii) both high in impurities and high strength
iv) both high in impurities and low strength
PROBABILITY OF A COMPLEMENT
 This rule states that the probability that an event
A will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability
that it will occur.

PA' 1  PA

You might also like