Probability

Equally likely events

It conveys the notion that each outcome of an
experiment has the same chance of appearing
as any other.
In a throw of a dice occurrence of 1,2,3,4,5,6
are equally likely events
 Classical approach of Probability
• Oldest and simplest approach.
• It is the ratio of the number of favorable cases
to the total number of equally likely cases.
• P(A) =
• Eg: If a coin is tossed,
P(getting a head) =
• If a dice is thrown,
P( getting an even no: ) =
 Symbolical representation of classical approach:
If an event can happen in ‘a’ ways out of a total of
‘n’ equally likely and mutually exclusive ways then
the probability of occurrence of the event (called
its success) is denoted by:
p = P(A) =
And the probability of non-occurrence of the
event (called its failure) is given by:
q = P(Not A) or P() =
=1-
= 1-p or 1- P(A)
P(A) + P( = 1
OR
p+q=1
Eg: From a bag containing 10 black and 20 white balls, a ball is drawn
at random. What is the probability that it is black and what is the
probability that it is not black.

Total number of balls in the bag = 10+20 = 30

Number of black balls = 10
Probability of getting a black ball or
p(A) =
=
Probability of not getting a black ball or
q= =
Thus, p+q= + =1
 Emperical or Relative frequency
Theory of Probability
• The probability is defined as the relative
frequency with which it occurs in an
indefinitely large number of trials.
• If an event occurs a times out of n, its relative
frequency is ; the value which is approached
by when n becomes infinity is called the limit
of the relative frequency.
• Symbolically, P(A) =
 Axiomatic approach to Probability:
• It was introduced by the Russian mathematician
Andrey Kolmogorov in the year 1933.
• He axiomised the theory of probability in his book
“Foundations of the Theory of Probability.”
• When this approach is followed, no precise
definition of probability is given, rather we give
certain axioms or postulates on which probability
calculations are based.
 The 3 axioms of probability:
• (1) The probability of an event ranges from zero to
one. If the event cannot take place its probability shall
be zero and if it is certain i.e, bound to occur, its
probability shall be one.
• (2) The probability of the entire sample space is 1, i.e,
P(S) = 1.
• (3) If A and B are mutually exclusive (or disjoint)
events then the probability of occurrence of either A
or B denoted by P(A U B) shall be given by:
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
 Important terms in Probability:
• Experiment and events:
The term experiment refers to an act which can be repeated
under some given conditions.
Random experiments are those experiments whose results
depend on chance such as tossing of a coin, throwing of dice, etc.
The results of a random experiment are called outcomes.
Thus, if in an experiment all possible outcomes are known in
advance and none of the outcomes can be predicted with
certainty, then such an experiment is called a random experiment
and the outcomes as events or chance events. Events are denoted
by capital letters A,B,C,….
• Mutually Exclusive events
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive or
incompatible when both cannot happen simultaneously in
a single trial or
the occurrence of any one of them precludes the
occurrence of the other.
Eg: If a single coin is tossed either the head can be up or
tail can be up, but both cannot be up at the same time
Symbolically, if A and B are mutually exclusive events ,
P(AB) = 0
• Independent and Dependent Events
Two or more events are said to be independent when the
outcome of one does not affect and is not affected by the
other.
For Eg. If a coin is tossed twice the result of the second throw
would in no way be affected by the result of the first throw.
Dependent events are those in which the occurrence or
non-occurrence of one event in any one trial affects the
probability of other events in other trials.
For Eg. If a card is drawn from a pack of playing cards and is
not replaced , this will alter the probability of the second
card drawn.
• Equally likely events
Events are said to be equally likely when one
does not occur more often than the others.
• Exhaustive Events
Events are said to be exhaustive when their
totality includes all the possible outcomes of a
random experiment.
For eg. While tossing a dice, the possible
outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 and hence the
exhaustive no: of cases is 6.
If two dice are thrown once the possible
outcomes are
• Complementary Events
Let there be two events A and B. A is called the
complementary event of B (and vice versa) if A
and B are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
For eg, when a dice is thrown, occurrence of an
even number (2,4,6) and odd number(1,3,5) are
complementary events.
 Theorems of Probability
• The Addition Theorem
• The Multiplication Theorem
 Addition Theorem
Case 1: For mutually exclusive events:
• The addition theorem states that if two events A and B
are mutually exclusive the probability of occurrence of
either A or B is the sum of the individual probability of A
and B.
• Symbolically, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
or P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
• The theorem can be extended to three or more mutually
exclusive events.
• Thus, P(AUBUC) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C)
Eg: One card is drawn from a standard pack of
52. What is the probability that it is either a King
or a Queen?
There are 4 kings and 4 queens in a pack of
52 cards.
Probability that the card drawn is a king =
4/52
Probability that the card drawn is a queen =
4/52

Since the events are mutually exclusive, the

probability that the card drawn is either a
king or a queen = 4/52 + 4/52
=
8/52
=
2/13
 Addition Theorem
Case 2: For not mutually exclusive events:
• The addition theorem states that if two events A and B
are not mutually exclusive the probability of occurrence
of either A or B is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
or P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
• The theorem can be extended to three or more not
mutually exclusive events.
• Thus, P(AUBUC) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C) – P(AB) – P(AC) – P(BC)
+ P(ABC)
Eg: What is the probability of drawing either a
king or a heart from a standard pack of cards?
It is clear that the events king and heart can
occur together as we can draw a king of hearts.
i.e, they are not mutually exclusive events.

We must deduce from the probability of drawing

either a king or a heart, the chance that we can
draw both of them together.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)

P(King or heart) = P(king) + P(heart) – P(King and
heart)
= 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52
= 16/52
= 4/13
Problems
 1.Find the probability of getting a numbered card when a card is
drawn from
the pack of 52 cards.
Total Cards = 52.
Numbered Cards = (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) 9
from each suit 4 × 9 = 36

P (E) = 36/52 = 9/13

2. What is the probability of getting a sum of 7
when two
dice are thrown?
Total number of ways = 6 × 6 = 36 ways.

Favorable cases = (1, 6) (6, 1) (2, 5) (5, 2) (3,

4) (4, 3) ---
6 ways.

P (A) = 6/36 = 1/6

3. 1 card is drawn at random from the pack of
52 cards.
(i) Find the Probability that it is an honor card.
(ii) It is a face card.
 (i) honor cards = (A, J, Q, K) 4 cards from
each suits =
4 × 4 = 16

P (honor card) = 16/52 = 4/13

(ii) face cards = (J,Q,K) 3 cards from each

suit =
3 × 4 = 12 Cards.

P (face Card) = 12/52 = 3/13

 4. A coin is thrown 3 times .what is the
probability that
atleast one head is obtained?
Sample space = [HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH,
THT, HTT, TTT]
Total number of ways = 2 × 2 × 2 = 8. 
Fav. Cases = 7
P (A) = 7/8

OR

P (of getting at least one head) = 1 – P (no head)⇒

1 – (1/8)
=
7/8
5. Find the probability that a leap year has 52
Sundays
 A leap year can have 52 Sundays or 53 Sundays.

In a leap year, there are 366 days out of which there are 52
complete weeks & remaining 2 days.

Now, these two days can be (Sat, Sun) (Sun, Mon) (Mon, Tue)
(Tue, Wed) (Wed, Thur) (Thur, Friday) (Friday, Sat).

So there are total 7 cases out of which (Sat, Sun) (Sun, Mon)
are two favorable cases.

So,  P (53 Sundays) = 2 / 7

Now, P(52 Sundays) + P(53 Sundays) = 1

So, P (52 Sundays) = 1 - P(53 Sundays) = 1 – (2/7) = (5/7)

6. What is the probability of getting a 2 or a 5 when a
die is rolled?
Taking the individual probabilities of each number,
getting a 2 is 1/6 and so is getting a 5.

Applying the addition theorem of probability,

Probability of getting a 2 or a 5,

P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5)

==>      1/6 + 1/6
==>      2/6 = 1/3.
7. Find the probability of selecting a black
card or a 6
from a deck of 52 cards.
We need to find out P(B or 6)
Probability of selecting a black card 
= 26/52
Probability of selecting a 6                
= 4/52
Probability of selecting both a black
card and a 6 = 2/52

P(B or 6)    = P(B) + P(6) – P(B 6)

= 26/52 + 4/52 – 2/52
= 28/52
= 7/13.
8. Calculate the probability of picking
a card that was a heart or a spade.
Ans: 1/2
9. What is the probability of picking a
card that was red or black?
Ans: 1
10. A bag contains 30 balls numbered from 1 to
30. One ball is drawn at random. Find the
probability that the number of the ball drawn will
be a multiple of
(a)5 or 7
(b)3 0r 7
(a) P ( the number being multiple of 5)
=P (5,10,15,20,25,30)
= 6/30
P (the number being multiple of 7)
= P ( 7,14,21,28)
= 4/30
P (the number being a multiple of 7 or 5 )
= 6/30 + 4/30
=10/30
= 1/3

(b) Try yourself Ans: 10/30 + 4/30 – 1/30

= 13/30
 Multiplication Theorem
If two events A and B are independent, then the
probability that they both will occur is equal to
the product of their individual probability.

P (A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

The theorem can be extended to three or more
independent events,
P(A,B and C) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C)
Eg.1. From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn at random one
after the other with replacement. What is the probability that both
cards are kings?
Eg.1. From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn at random one
after the other with replacement. What is the probability that both
cards are kings?

 The probability of drawing a king P (A) =    4/52 

The probability of drawing again the king after replacement P (B
Since the two events are independent, the probability of drawing
Eg:2. A bag contains 4 red balls, 3 white balls and 5 black balls.
Two balls are drawn one after the other with replacement. Find
the probability that first is red and the second is black.
Eg:2. A bag contains 4 red balls, 3 white balls and 5 black balls.
Two balls are drawn one after the other with replacement. Find
the probability that first is red and the second is black.
Probability of red ball in the first draw =     4/12
The probability of a black ball in the second draw = 
5/12
Since the events are independent,
the probability that first is red and the second are
black will be:
                                               
 Eg:3. A bag contains 5 green and 7 red balls.
Two balls are drawn. Find the probability that
one is green and the other is red

Ans: 35/144
Eg.4 Suppose that we are going to roll two fair 6-
sided dice.
Find the probability that both dice show a 3.

Ans: 1/36
Eg.5 There are 6 possible routes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
from Chennai to Kochi and 4 routes (7, 8, 9,
10) from the Kochi to the Trivandrum. If each
path is chosen at random, what is the
probability that a person can travel from the
Chennai to the Trivandrum via the 4th and
9th road?
Eg.5 There are 6 possible routes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
from Chennai to Kochi and 4 routes (7, 8, 9,
10) from the Kochi to the Trivandrum. If each
path is chosen at random, what is the
probability that a person can travel from the
Chennai to the Trivandrum via the 4th and
There is a 1/6 chance of choosing the
9  road?
th
4  path, and
th

there is a 1/4 chance of choosing the

9th path.
The selection of the path to the Kochi is
independent of the selection of the path to
the Trivandrum.
Hence, by the rule of product, there is
a 1/6∗1/4=1/24 chance of choosing the 4th-
9th path.
 Eg:6 A man wants to marry a girl having
qualities: white complexion – the probability
of getting such a girl is one in twenty;
handsome dowry – the probability of getting
this is one in fifty; westernized manners and
etiquettes – the probability here is one in
hundred. Find out the probability of his
getting married to such a girl when the
possession of these three attributes is
independent.

Ans: 1/20 x 1/50 x 1/100 = 1/100000

=0.00001
 P( At least one of the events)
If we are given n independent events A1,A2,A3,… An
with respective probability of occurrences as
p1,p2,p3,…pn , then the probability of occurrence of
at least one of the n events A1,A2,A3,…An can be
determined as follows:
P( happening of at least one of the events) = 1-
P( happening of none of

the events)
Eg:1 A Problem in Statistics is given to 5
students A,B,C,D and E. Their chances of
solving it are 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 and 1/6
respectively. What is the probability that the
problem will be solved?
Eg: A Problem in Statistics is given to 5 students A,B,C,D and E. Their chances of solving it
are 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5 and 1/6 respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be
solved?

Ans: The probability that the problem will be solved =

Probability that at least one of them solves the problem =
1 – P( none of them solves the problem)
P( A does not solve the problem) = 1-1/2 =1/2
P( B does not solve the problem) = 1-1/3 =2/3
P( C does not solve the problem) = 1-1/4 =3/4
P( D does not solve the problem) = 1-1/5 =4/5
P( E does not solve the problem) = 1-1/6 =5/6
Since the events are independent, the probability that none of them solves the
problem = 1/2 x 2/3 x 3/4 x 4/5 x
= 1/6
Probability that at least one of them solves the problem =
1 – P( none of them solves the problem) = 1- 1/6 =5/6
Eg.2 A can solve 90% of the problems given in a book
and B can solve 70% . What is the probability that at
least one of them will solve a problem selected at
random?
Eg.2 A can solve 90% of the problems given in a book
and B can solve 70% . What is the probability that at
least one of them will solve a problem selected at
random?

Ans. 97/100
 Conditional Probability
• When we are computing the probability of a particular event
A, given information about the occurrence of another event
B, this probability is referred to as conditional probability.
• The multiplication theorem seen before is not applicable in
case of dependent events.
• Two events A and B are said to be dependent when B can
occur only when A is known to have occurred (or vice versa).
• The probability attached to such an event is called the
conditional probability and is denoted by P(A/B) or, in other
words, Probability of A given that B has occurred.
• If two events A and B are dependent then the
conditional probability of B given A is:
P(B/A) =
• Similarly,
P(A/B) =
 General Rule of Multiplication
• P(A and B) = P(B) x P(A/B)
or
• P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B/A)
Eg:1. A bag contains 5 white and 4 black balls.
Two balls are drawn at random one after the
other without replacement. Find the probability
that both balls drawn are black.
Eg:1. A bag contains 5 white and 4 black balls. Two balls are
drawn at random one after the other without replacement.
Find the probability that both balls drawn are black.
Ans: P(drawing a black ball in the first attempt) = P(A)= 4/9
P(drawing the second black ball given that the first ball
drawn is
black) = P(B/A) = 3/8
P(both balls drawn are black) = P(AB) = P(A) x P(B/A)
= 4/9 x 3/8 =1/6